Friday, 3 July 2015

No more pre game trading

The pre game trading was one of my strategies. Unfortunately it didn't work well. Actually I think it could be a nice niche market, but you can't do it just beside the inplay trading. Normally it's a lot of psychology in the offplay markets. Especially not experienced bettors have the tendency to back the big favourite (against every logic of value). After a loss with Stan Wawrinka, which I hoped to solve inplay (unfortunately it didn't work, I would categorize this trade as a small lack of discipline), I decided to stop with these kind of trades. I don't see a real edge, at least not without a big focus on the offplay market.

I didn't count this loss to my profit&loss statement (exactly -100 Euro), because I will not do this approach anymore. It's looking like an excuse, that's true. Probably I would count the profit if I could turn the trade in a winner. I am honest about this issue. You see, never believe a profit&loss blog ;-). I would not consider my blog as one of these categories. My figures (on the right side) are just shown to keep my focus and my discipline as high as possible. If there are a difference to real Betfair statement I will mention it like today. I don't like to lie about my numbers, there is no benefit for me to do that.

If you don't count the mentioned trade, I had a successful day. Nevertheless it was not that good like it should be. There were a lot of missed opportunities, once again... Unfortunately my focus drifted away after the lost trade with Stan Wawrinka. It never helps to start bad in a day. A professional trader has the mental strength to forget a loss in one second. He knows that his strategy works and there is a long term edge on his side. I am still not sure about it. The results (without the mentioned mistake) of Wimbledon are looking promising. I made over 150 Euro, what I also did in the weeks before. I know that the sample size is too small, nevertheless I am happy about the progress. Step after step I find my own way to trade. Below you find my profit&loss statement for Wimbledon. When you substract the mentioned trade of Wawrinka and the outright bet on Rafael Nadal (it was more fun than real believe) is exactly the value shown on the right side.

In summary Wimbledon was not my breakthrough, but a step in the right direction. I still make too much mistakes and miss opportunities which I shouldn't. Beside I take too often bad value.  

Tomorrow I will travel to New York. I just recognized that the 4th July is a special day in the USA. Let's see if there are some activities around the Times Square, where my hotel is. I think it's the right moment to take a break from the ladders. The last days were intense and like wrote yesterday, you have to consider the opportunity costs, which are quite high. After the holidays I will trade some smaller tournaments. The nice thing about tennis trading, there is always a tomorrow with new opportunities...

7 comments:

  1. apart wawrinka trade your trading looks no bad

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    1. Thanks! Yes it's quite consistent now. Wawrinka (and Rafa outright win) you can forget for the P+L. I hoped for a pre game profit. Unfortunately Stan started with serve and was looking stronger since the start. I should take a loss of 20 Euro instead of hoping for a surprise. Like I wrote, I don't see an edge at pre game trading. Perhaps if you would focus on that kind of trading. For me was psychologically tough to be red before the first ball was played. So it's better to stop it... like I wrote, in the end everybody has to find his own way. I feel more and more comfortable.

      Like Cassini wrote, there is no real edge. In the end you make the profit because of the knowledge of markets, players and patterns. No wonder the results are getting better with more experience. There is no short cut... buying strategies (like I did at Sultan's Academy) can give you an idea, but in the end only a good knowledge of tennis will bring you the success.

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  2. Are you obsessed with Cassini ?

    His name is Robert .

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    1. ... and you are obsessed about stealing people. Loser stays loser, one jackpot (of 58k) doesn't make the life better over the long term. :-) Last post I published from your side.

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  3. vote for federer... forever legend

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  4. Does anyone sitting at home actually manage to make money consistently by betting on tennis in-running?

    I long ago realised that I was always going to be behind court-siders or people who had access to court-side information, but I have had some success with 'playing the numbers' (backing when the weight-of-money indicates I should, and then laying off) but it is stressful to say the least.

    Tonight I am looking at the numbers jumping around as Andy Roddick is playing Nikolay Davydenko and with Davydenko a set up, I decided to jump in with a bet on him at 1.73. As per usual, (or so it seems), the price then immediately moves against me, and my heart rate goes over 100, (or at least it feels like it). About two hours later, ok, more like five minutes later, the price is back down to where I backed at, and then drops still further, to 1.66, at which point I lay-off, leaving zero on Roddick, and all the green on Davydenko.

    Why did I lay off at that time? I think it's because the market initially moved against me, so psychologically I say to myself "If I can get out of this even, I'll be happy" and thus when the opportunity to get out with a nice profit presented itself, I took it. Tennis being what it is, had I waited just a few more minutes I could have layed off closer to 1.3, (at which point I went Green-all-Over) and it wasn't that long before the game was over in straight sets and I could have greened up at 1.0x.

    Maybe I should play with smaller amounts (I put £900 on and wouldn't have been happy to lose that!), or lay-off part of the bet. Maybe I should have let the bet run, and traded out at a loss only if the market moved against me. In the end, I came away with £47.23, about 5% of my initial investment, but I can't help feeling I should have made more. But a win is a win.

    One of the problems with Betfair, when compared with the stock market, is that there is no ability to put a stop-loss bet into the market, for example a bet to lay at 2.0 to close my 1.73 position for a controlled loss, since that would be immediately matched if I didn't want it to be taken (the bet is still in good shape) or would remain unmatched if I DID want it to be (the bet is awful and no one is interested!)

    Anyone any thoughts, comments or ideas?

    Green all over blog 2008.

    My question is has the knowledge of trading tennis improved since 2008 ?

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    1. Obviously you cant make money like this. Your profit/loss-ratio is not good enough. You cant green after 5 Ticks and let the losses run at 2.00 or higher.

      First step is the reduction of your stake. You have to be comfortable, also with a losing position. Second you have to know BEFORE the entry, what you will do. Here you just reacted based on emotions. Beside you entered in my opinion in a wrong moment with a too volatile market. That was just gambling...

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